It seems safe to assume that by the end of 2012, public libraries may be directing as much as 20% of their collection budgets to digital content. By the end of three years, it may be closer to 50%. That shift of resources, at a time when the budget pie itself is shrinking, will have one unsurprising result: The circulation of print will decline if we offer fewer print materials. That, in turn, will accelerate the shifting of resources.
There are many players in the rapidly changing publishing environment, and many issues for them to sort through. We can expect things will be chaotic and awkward for a while.
Meanwhile, it may be helpful to consider the thoughts and concerns of some of those players. Below, I talk to a reader, a writer, an independent bookseller, and an independent publisher. All of them are real people grappling with real concerns.